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Frauental vs Gnas — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Frauental
Frauental
CANC
18:00
Gnas
Gnas
3/15/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 17Sportplatz Frauental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Frauental39%
×Draw24%
Gnas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frauental
1.61
Gnas
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 73 away

creates per match

Frauental
1.22
Gnas
1.16

allows per match

Frauental
1.96
Gnas
2.00

finishing

Frauental+0.00on par
Gnas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frauental ↓

Gnas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Frauental or draw
63%
Frauental or Gnas
76%
Draw or Gnas
61%

Winning margin

Frauental wins by 2+
20%
Gnas wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Frauental 1+ goals
80%
Frauental 2+ goals
48%
Frauental 3+ goals
22%
Gnas 1+ goals
79%
Gnas 2+ goals
46%
Gnas 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Frauental (draw refunded)
51%
Gnas (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frauental at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

Gnas away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.00 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frauental attack 1.22 + Gnas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Gnas attack 1.16 + Frauental defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Frauental scores more
39%
level
24%
Gnas scores more
37%

Frauental at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Frauental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frauental vs Gnas — Match Preview

Frauental face Gnas on March 15, 2024 in this Landesliga - Steiermark fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Frauental host Gnas at Sportplatz Frauental.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.