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Gmünd vs Bleiburg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Gmünd
Gmünd
FT
2 – 0
Bleiburg
Bleiburg
5/25/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 30Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Gmünd50%
×Draw24%
Bleiburg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gmünd
1.73
Bleiburg
1.17

Gmünd creates 48% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 91 away

creates per match

Gmünd
1.69
Bleiburg
1.29

allows per match

Gmünd
1.04
Bleiburg
1.78

finishing

Gmünd+0.00on par
Bleiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gmünd ↓

Bleiburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gmünd or draw
74%
Gmünd or Bleiburg
76%
Draw or Bleiburg
50%

Winning margin

Gmünd wins by 2+
27%
Bleiburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gmünd 1+ goals
82%
Gmünd 2+ goals
52%
Gmünd 3+ goals
25%
Bleiburg 1+ goals
69%
Bleiburg 2+ goals
33%
Bleiburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gmünd (draw refunded)
66%
Bleiburg (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gmünd at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

Bleiburg away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.78 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gmünd attack 1.69 + Bleiburg defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bleiburg attack 1.29 + Gmünd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gmünd scores more
50%
level
24%
Bleiburg scores more
26%

Gmünd at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Gmünd 2–0 Bleiburg

Gmünd beat Bleiburg 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd in Gmünd.