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Gmünd vs Austria Klagenfurt — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Gmünd
Gmünd
CANC
21:00
Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
6/14/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 30Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Gmünd47%
×Draw25%
Austria Klagenfurt28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gmünd
1.63
Austria Klagenfurt
1.20

Gmünd creates 36% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 28 away

creates per match

Gmünd
1.69
Austria Klagenfurt
1.36

allows per match

Gmünd
1.04
Austria Klagenfurt
1.57

finishing

Gmünd+0.00on par
Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gmünd ↓

Austria Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gmünd or draw
72%
Gmünd or Austria Klagenfurt
75%
Draw or Austria Klagenfurt
53%

Winning margin

Gmünd wins by 2+
25%
Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gmünd 1+ goals
80%
Gmünd 2+ goals
48%
Gmünd 3+ goals
22%
Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
70%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
34%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gmünd (draw refunded)
63%
Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gmünd at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

Austria Klagenfurt away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gmünd attack 1.69 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.63

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.36 + Gmünd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gmünd scores more
47%
level
25%
Austria Klagenfurt scores more
28%

Gmünd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gmünd host Austria Klagenfurt

June 14, 2020: Gmünd take on Austria Klagenfurt in Landesliga - Karnten. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gmünd host Austria Klagenfurt at Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.