Gloucester City 2–1 Newport County: Result & Stats

Gloucester City

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Newport County

J. Crosbie 63'

A. Hemmings 55'

L. Jenkins 24'

7/11/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gloucester City42%

×Draw26%

Newport County32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gloucester CityExpected goals in this matchNewport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.23

Gloucester City

1.44

Newport County

1.23

Gloucester City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

1.33

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Gloucester City

1.00

Newport County

1.13

allows per match

Gloucester City

1.33

Newport County

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gloucester City+0.00on par

Newport County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloucester City ↓

Newport County →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gloucester City or draw

68%

Gloucester City or Newport County

74%

Draw or Newport County

58%

Winning margin

Gloucester City wins by 2+

20%

Newport County wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gloucester City 1+ goals

76%

Gloucester City 2+ goals

42%

Gloucester City 3+ goals

18%

Newport County 1+ goals

71%

Newport County 2+ goals

35%

Newport County 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gloucester City (draw refunded)

57%

Newport County (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gloucester City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gloucester City attack 1.00 + Newport County defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Newport County attack 1.13 + Gloucester City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gloucester City scores more

42%

level

26%

Newport County scores more

32%

Gloucester City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gloucester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

L. Jenkins

55'

A. Hemmings

63'

J. Crosbie

69'

Trialist C

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff