Gloucester City 1–2 Barry Town: Result & Stats

Gloucester City

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Barry Town

J. Hanks 62'

Trialist 60'

M. George 48'

7/19/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gloucester City23%

×Draw24%

Barry Town53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gloucester CityExpected goals in this matchBarry Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.67

Gloucester City

1.00

Barry Town

1.67

Barry Town creates 67% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

1.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Gloucester City

1.00

Barry Town

2.00

allows per match

Gloucester City

1.33

Barry Town

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gloucester City+0.00on par

Barry Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloucester City ↓

Barry Town →

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gloucester City or draw

47%

Gloucester City or Barry Town

76%

Draw or Barry Town

77%

Winning margin

Gloucester City wins by 2+

Barry Town wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Gloucester City 1+ goals

63%

Gloucester City 2+ goals

26%

Gloucester City 3+ goals

Barry Town 1+ goals

81%

Barry Town 2+ goals

50%

Barry Town 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Gloucester City (draw refunded)

30%

Barry Town (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gloucester City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Barry Town away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gloucester City attack 1.00 + Barry Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Barry Town attack 2.00 + Gloucester City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gloucester City scores more

23%

level

24%

Barry Town scores more

53%

Barry Town at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Barry Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

M. George

60'

Trialist

62'

J. Hanks

Gloucester

Barry

Manager: M. Cook

Manager: A. Legg