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Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W vs Banat Girls W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
FT
3 – 0
Banat Girls W
Banat Girls W
4/28/2024Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 8Baza Sportivă Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W75%
×Draw14%
Banat Girls W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
3.22
Banat Girls W
1.24

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W creates 160% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 43 away

creates per match

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
3.67
Banat Girls W
1.30

allows per match

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.18
Banat Girls W
2.77

finishing

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W+0.00on par
Banat Girls W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W ↓

Banat Girls W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W or draw
88%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W or Banat Girls W
86%
Draw or Banat Girls W
25%

Winning margin

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W wins by 2+
56%
Banat Girls W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 1+ goals
96%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 2+ goals
82%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 3+ goals
61%
Banat Girls W 1+ goals
71%
Banat Girls W 2+ goals
35%
Banat Girls W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W (draw refunded)
87%
Banat Girls W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

Banat Girls W away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.77 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W attack 3.67 + Banat Girls W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 3.22

Banat Girls W attack 1.30 + Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W scores more
75%
level
14%
Banat Girls W scores more
12%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W vs Banat Girls W

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W beat Banat Girls W 3-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Baza Sportivă Gloria in Bistrița.