Gloria Băneasa 3–0 Voluntari II: Result & Stats

Gloria Băneasa

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Voluntari II

11/18/2023

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 13Stadionul Central Băneasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gloria Băneasa55%

×Draw20%

Voluntari II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gloria BăneasaExpected goals in this matchVoluntari II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.44

Gloria Băneasa

2.23

Voluntari II

1.44

Gloria Băneasa creates 55% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 43 away

1.98

creates per match

1.33

1.54

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Gloria Băneasa

1.98

Voluntari II

1.33

allows per match

Gloria Băneasa

1.54

Voluntari II

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gloria Băneasa+0.00on par

Voluntari II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloria Băneasa ↓

Voluntari II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Gloria Băneasa or draw

75%

Gloria Băneasa or Voluntari II

80%

Draw or Voluntari II

45%

Winning margin

Gloria Băneasa wins by 2+

34%

Voluntari II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gloria Băneasa 1+ goals

89%

Gloria Băneasa 2+ goals

65%

Gloria Băneasa 3+ goals

38%

Voluntari II 1+ goals

76%

Voluntari II 2+ goals

42%

Voluntari II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gloria Băneasa (draw refunded)

69%

Voluntari II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloria Băneasa at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

Voluntari II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloria Băneasa attack 1.98 + Voluntari II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.23

Voluntari II attack 1.33 + Gloria Băneasa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gloria Băneasa scores more

55%

level

20%

Voluntari II scores more

25%

Gloria Băneasa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gloria Băneasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff