Gloria Băneasa 2–1 Înainte Modelu: Result & Stats

Gloria Băneasa

FT

2 – 1

Înainte Modelu

4/5/2025

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 3Stadionul Central Băneasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Gloria Băneasa52%

×Draw22%

Înainte Modelu26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gloria BăneasaExpected goals in this matchÎnainte Modelu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.31

Gloria Băneasa

1.92

Înainte Modelu

1.31

Gloria Băneasa creates 47% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 62 away

1.98

creates per match

1.08

1.54

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Gloria Băneasa

1.98

Înainte Modelu

1.08

allows per match

Gloria Băneasa

1.54

Înainte Modelu

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gloria Băneasa+0.00on par

Înainte Modelu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloria Băneasa ↓

Înainte Modelu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Gloria Băneasa or draw

74%

Gloria Băneasa or Înainte Modelu

78%

Draw or Înainte Modelu

48%

Winning margin

Gloria Băneasa wins by 2+

29%

Înainte Modelu wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gloria Băneasa 1+ goals

85%

Gloria Băneasa 2+ goals

57%

Gloria Băneasa 3+ goals

30%

Înainte Modelu 1+ goals

73%

Înainte Modelu 2+ goals

38%

Înainte Modelu 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gloria Băneasa (draw refunded)

66%

Înainte Modelu (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloria Băneasa at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

Înainte Modelu away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.85 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloria Băneasa attack 1.98 + Înainte Modelu defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.92

Înainte Modelu attack 1.08 + Gloria Băneasa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gloria Băneasa scores more

52%

level

22%

Înainte Modelu scores more

26%

Gloria Băneasa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gloria Băneasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff