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Gloria Băneasa vs CS Afumati — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Gloria Băneasa
Gloria Băneasa
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
CS Afumati
CS Afumati
12/2/2023Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadionul Central Băneasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gloria Băneasa23%
×Draw21%
CS Afumati56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gloria Băneasa
1.32
CS Afumati
2.16

CS Afumati creates 64% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 35 away

creates per match

Gloria Băneasa
1.98
CS Afumati
2.77

allows per match

Gloria Băneasa
1.54
CS Afumati
0.66

finishing

Gloria Băneasa+0.00on par
CS Afumati+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloria Băneasa ↓

CS Afumati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Gloria Băneasa or draw
44%
Gloria Băneasa or CS Afumati
79%
Draw or CS Afumati
77%

Winning margin

Gloria Băneasa wins by 2+
10%
CS Afumati wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Gloria Băneasa 1+ goals
73%
Gloria Băneasa 2+ goals
38%
Gloria Băneasa 3+ goals
15%
CS Afumati 1+ goals
88%
CS Afumati 2+ goals
63%
CS Afumati 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Gloria Băneasa (draw refunded)
29%
CS Afumati (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloria Băneasa at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

CS Afumati away — creates 2.77, concedes 0.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloria Băneasa attack 1.98 + CS Afumati defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.32

CS Afumati attack 2.77 + Gloria Băneasa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gloria Băneasa scores more
23%
level
21%
CS Afumati scores more
56%

CS Afumati at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CS Afumati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gloria Băneasa vs CS Afumati

CS Afumati beat Gloria Băneasa 4-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Central Băneasa in Băneasa.