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Gloggnitz vs Wiener SC — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wiener SC
Wiener SC
10/12/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 11Krammer-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Gloggnitz38%
×Draw24%
Wiener SC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gloggnitz
1.52
Wiener SC
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 100 away

creates per match

Gloggnitz
1.48
Wiener SC
1.61

allows per match

Gloggnitz
1.42
Wiener SC
1.55

finishing

Gloggnitz+0.00on par
Wiener SC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloggnitz ↓

Wiener SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gloggnitz or draw
62%
Gloggnitz or Wiener SC
76%
Draw or Wiener SC
62%

Winning margin

Gloggnitz wins by 2+
18%
Wiener SC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gloggnitz 1+ goals
78%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
45%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
20%
Wiener SC 1+ goals
78%
Wiener SC 2+ goals
45%
Wiener SC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
50%
Wiener SC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloggnitz at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Wiener SC away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.55 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloggnitz attack 1.48 + Wiener SC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Wiener SC attack 1.61 + Gloggnitz defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gloggnitz scores more
38%
level
24%
Wiener SC scores more
38%

Gloggnitz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gloggnitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Gloggnitz 0–2 Wiener SC

Wiener SC beat Gloggnitz 2-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Krammer-Arena in Gloggnitz.