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Gloggnitz vs USC Rohrbach — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
FT
2 – 2
USC Rohrbach
USC Rohrbach
3/11/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 16Krammer-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gloggnitz62%
×Draw21%
USC Rohrbach17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gloggnitz
2.08
USC Rohrbach
1.00

Gloggnitz creates 108% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 71 away

creates per match

Gloggnitz
2.21
USC Rohrbach
1.06

allows per match

Gloggnitz
0.93
USC Rohrbach
1.94

finishing

Gloggnitz+0.00on par
USC Rohrbach+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloggnitz ↓

USC Rohrbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gloggnitz or draw
83%
Gloggnitz or USC Rohrbach
79%
Draw or USC Rohrbach
38%

Winning margin

Gloggnitz wins by 2+
38%
USC Rohrbach wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gloggnitz 1+ goals
87%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
61%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
34%
USC Rohrbach 1+ goals
63%
USC Rohrbach 2+ goals
26%
USC Rohrbach 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
78%
USC Rohrbach (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloggnitz at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

USC Rohrbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.94 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloggnitz attack 2.21 + USC Rohrbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.08

USC Rohrbach attack 1.06 + Gloggnitz defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gloggnitz scores more
62%
level
21%
USC Rohrbach scores more
17%

Gloggnitz at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gloggnitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gloggnitz vs USC Rohrbach

Gloggnitz and USC Rohrbach drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Krammer-Arena in Gloggnitz.