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Gloggnitz vs Langenrohr — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
FT
3 – 0
Langenrohr
Langenrohr
11/11/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 15Krammer-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gloggnitz59%
×Draw21%
Langenrohr20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gloggnitz
2.04
Langenrohr
1.10

Gloggnitz creates 85% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 86 away

creates per match

Gloggnitz
2.21
Langenrohr
1.28

allows per match

Gloggnitz
0.93
Langenrohr
1.87

finishing

Gloggnitz+0.00on par
Langenrohr+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloggnitz ↓

Langenrohr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gloggnitz or draw
80%
Gloggnitz or Langenrohr
79%
Draw or Langenrohr
41%

Winning margin

Gloggnitz wins by 2+
36%
Langenrohr wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gloggnitz 1+ goals
87%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
60%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
33%
Langenrohr 1+ goals
67%
Langenrohr 2+ goals
30%
Langenrohr 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
75%
Langenrohr (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloggnitz at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

Langenrohr away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.87 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloggnitz attack 2.21 + Langenrohr defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.04

Langenrohr attack 1.28 + Gloggnitz defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gloggnitz scores more
59%
level
21%
Langenrohr scores more
20%

Gloggnitz at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gloggnitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: Gloggnitz 3–0 Langenrohr

Gloggnitz beat Langenrohr 3-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Krammer-Arena in Gloggnitz.