Gloggnitz 1–2 Haitzendorf: Result & Stats

Gloggnitz

FT

1 – 2

Haitzendorf

8/25/2023

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 4Krammer-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gloggnitz59%

×Draw21%

Haitzendorf20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GloggnitzExpected goals in this matchHaitzendorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.07

Gloggnitz

2.02

Haitzendorf

1.07

Gloggnitz creates 89% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

2.21

creates per match

1.21

0.93

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Gloggnitz

2.21

Haitzendorf

1.21

allows per match

Gloggnitz

0.93

Haitzendorf

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gloggnitz+0.00on par

Haitzendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloggnitz ↓

Haitzendorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Gloggnitz or draw

80%

Gloggnitz or Haitzendorf

79%

Draw or Haitzendorf

41%

Winning margin

Gloggnitz wins by 2+

36%

Haitzendorf wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gloggnitz 1+ goals

87%

Gloggnitz 2+ goals

60%

Gloggnitz 3+ goals

33%

Haitzendorf 1+ goals

66%

Haitzendorf 2+ goals

29%

Haitzendorf 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gloggnitz (draw refunded)

75%

Haitzendorf (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloggnitz at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

Haitzendorf away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloggnitz attack 2.21 + Haitzendorf defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.02

Haitzendorf attack 1.21 + Gloggnitz defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gloggnitz scores more

59%

level

21%

Haitzendorf scores more

20%

Gloggnitz at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gloggnitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff