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Gloggnitz vs Austria Vienna (Am) — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Austria Vienna (Am)
Austria Vienna (Am)
8/9/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 2Krammer-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Gloggnitz31%
×Draw23%
Austria Vienna (Am)46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gloggnitz
1.41
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.78

Austria Vienna (Am) creates 26% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

creates per match

Gloggnitz
1.48
Austria Vienna (Am)
2.15

allows per match

Gloggnitz
1.42
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.33

finishing

Gloggnitz+0.00on par
Austria Vienna (Am)+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloggnitz ↓

Austria Vienna (Am) →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gloggnitz or draw
54%
Gloggnitz or Austria Vienna (Am)
77%
Draw or Austria Vienna (Am)
69%

Winning margin

Gloggnitz wins by 2+
14%
Austria Vienna (Am) wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Gloggnitz 1+ goals
76%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
41%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
17%
Austria Vienna (Am) 1+ goals
83%
Austria Vienna (Am) 2+ goals
53%
Austria Vienna (Am) 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
40%
Austria Vienna (Am) (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloggnitz at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Austria Vienna (Am) away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloggnitz attack 1.48 + Austria Vienna (Am) defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Austria Vienna (Am) attack 2.15 + Gloggnitz defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gloggnitz scores more
31%
level
23%
Austria Vienna (Am) scores more
46%

Austria Vienna (Am) at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Austria Vienna (Am) will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Gloggnitz 0–2 Austria Vienna (Am)

Austria Vienna (Am) beat Gloggnitz 2-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at Krammer-Arena in Gloggnitz.