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Globo vs Confiança — Serie C 2018

Globo
Globo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Confiança
Confiança
5/4/2019Serie CSerie C · Round 2Estádio Manoel Dantas Barreto (Ceara-Mirim, Rio Grande do Norte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Globo46%
×Draw27%
Confiança27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Globo
1.38
Confiança
0.99

Globo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Globo
1.35
Confiança
0.81

allows per match

Globo
1.18
Confiança
1.41

finishing

Globo+0.00on par
Confiança+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Globo ↓

Confiança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Globo or draw
73%
Globo or Confiança
73%
Draw or Confiança
54%

Winning margin

Globo wins by 2+
22%
Confiança wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Globo 1+ goals
75%
Globo 2+ goals
40%
Globo 3+ goals
16%
Confiança 1+ goals
63%
Confiança 2+ goals
26%
Confiança 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Globo (draw refunded)
63%
Confiança (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Globo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Confiança away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Globo attack 1.35 + Confiança defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Confiança attack 0.81 + Globo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Globo scores more
46%
level
27%
Confiança scores more
27%

Globo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Globo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: Globo 2–0 Confiança

Globo beat Confiança 2-0 in Serie C on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Manoel Dantas Barreto (Ceara-Mirim, Rio Grande do Norte).