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Globo vs ABC — Serie C 2018

Globo
Globo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
ABC
ABC
8/24/2019Serie CSerie C · Round 18Estádio Manoel Dantas Barreto (Ceara-Mirim, Rio Grande do Norte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Globo43%
×Draw29%
ABC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Globo
1.25
ABC
0.97

Globo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

Globo
1.35
ABC
0.77

allows per match

Globo
1.18
ABC
1.15

finishing

Globo+0.00on par
ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Globo ↓

ABC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Globo or draw
71%
Globo or ABC
71%
Draw or ABC
57%

Winning margin

Globo wins by 2+
19%
ABC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Globo 1+ goals
71%
Globo 2+ goals
36%
Globo 3+ goals
13%
ABC 1+ goals
62%
ABC 2+ goals
25%
ABC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Globo (draw refunded)
60%
ABC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Globo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

ABC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Globo attack 1.35 + ABC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

ABC attack 0.77 + Globo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Globo scores more
43%
level
29%
ABC scores more
29%

Globo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Globo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Globo 0 – 2 ABC

ABC beat Globo 2-0 in Serie C on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Manoel Dantas Barreto (Ceara-Mirim, Rio Grande do Norte).