Global 2–1 Yangon United: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Global

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Yangon United

3/13/2018

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Rizal Memorial Stadium (Manila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Global44%

×Draw20%

Yangon United36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GlobalExpected goals in this matchYangon United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.95

Global

2.17

Yangon United

1.95

Global creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

2.22

1.67

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Global

2.00

Yangon United

2.22

allows per match

Global

1.67

Yangon United

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Global+0.00on par

Yangon United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Global ↓

Yangon United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Global or draw

64%

Global or Yangon United

80%

Draw or Yangon United

56%

Winning margin

Global wins by 2+

25%

Yangon United wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Global 1+ goals

89%

Global 2+ goals

64%

Global 3+ goals

36%

Yangon United 1+ goals

86%

Yangon United 2+ goals

58%

Yangon United 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Global (draw refunded)

55%

Yangon United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Global at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Yangon United away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Global attack 2.00 + Yangon United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Yangon United attack 2.22 + Global defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Global scores more

44%

level

20%

Yangon United scores more

36%

Global at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Global will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff