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Global vs Bali United — AFC Cup 2018

Global
Global
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bali United
Bali United
2/27/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Rizal Memorial Stadium (Manila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Global53%
×Draw20%
Bali United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Global
2.25
Bali United
1.58

Global creates 42% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Global
2.00
Bali United
1.50

allows per match

Global
1.67
Bali United
2.50

finishing

Global+0.00on par
Bali United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Global ↓

Bali United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Global or draw
73%
Global or Bali United
80%
Draw or Bali United
47%

Winning margin

Global wins by 2+
32%
Bali United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Global 1+ goals
89%
Global 2+ goals
65%
Global 3+ goals
39%
Bali United 1+ goals
79%
Bali United 2+ goals
47%
Bali United 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Global (draw refunded)
66%
Bali United (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Global at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Bali United away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Global attack 2.00 + Bali United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Bali United attack 1.50 + Global defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Global scores more
53%
level
20%
Bali United scores more
27%

Global at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Global will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Global vs Bali United

Global and Bali United drew 1-1 in AFC Cup on February 27, 2018.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium (Manila).