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Global Pharma vs Paynesville — LFA First Division 2020

Global Pharma
Global Pharma
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Paynesville
Paynesville
2/5/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 17D. Tweh Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Global Pharma41%
×Draw24%
Paynesville35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Global Pharma
1.62
Paynesville
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

creates per match

Global Pharma
1.54
Paynesville
1.52

allows per match

Global Pharma
1.46
Paynesville
1.70

finishing

Global Pharma+0.00on par
Paynesville+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Global Pharma ↓

Paynesville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Global Pharma or draw
65%
Global Pharma or Paynesville
76%
Draw or Paynesville
59%

Winning margin

Global Pharma wins by 2+
21%
Paynesville wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Global Pharma 1+ goals
80%
Global Pharma 2+ goals
48%
Global Pharma 3+ goals
22%
Paynesville 1+ goals
77%
Paynesville 2+ goals
44%
Paynesville 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Global Pharma (draw refunded)
54%
Paynesville (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Global Pharma at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Paynesville away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Global Pharma attack 1.54 + Paynesville defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.62

Paynesville attack 1.52 + Global Pharma defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Global Pharma scores more
41%
level
24%
Paynesville scores more
35%

Global Pharma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Global Pharma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Global Pharma 2–3 Paynesville

Paynesville beat Global Pharma 3-2 in LFA First Division on February 5, 2025.

The match was played at D. Tweh Field in Monrovia.