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Global Pharma vs NPA Anchors — LFA First Division 2020

Global Pharma
Global Pharma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NPA Anchors
NPA Anchors
2/11/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 17Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Global Pharma54%
×Draw23%
NPA Anchors23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Global Pharma
1.88
NPA Anchors
1.15

Global Pharma creates 63% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

Global Pharma
1.54
NPA Anchors
0.83

allows per match

Global Pharma
1.46
NPA Anchors
2.21

finishing

Global Pharma+0.00on par
NPA Anchors+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Global Pharma ↓

NPA Anchors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Global Pharma or draw
77%
Global Pharma or NPA Anchors
77%
Draw or NPA Anchors
46%

Winning margin

Global Pharma wins by 2+
31%
NPA Anchors wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Global Pharma 1+ goals
85%
Global Pharma 2+ goals
56%
Global Pharma 3+ goals
29%
NPA Anchors 1+ goals
68%
NPA Anchors 2+ goals
32%
NPA Anchors 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Global Pharma (draw refunded)
70%
NPA Anchors (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Global Pharma at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

NPA Anchors away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Global Pharma attack 1.54 + NPA Anchors defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.88

NPA Anchors attack 0.83 + Global Pharma defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Global Pharma scores more
54%
level
23%
NPA Anchors scores more
23%

Global Pharma at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Global Pharma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Global Pharma vs NPA Anchors

Global Pharma beat NPA Anchors 1-0 in LFA First Division on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.