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Global Pharma vs Kallon Liberia — LFA First Division 2020

Global Pharma
Global Pharma
FT
1 – 0
Kallon Liberia
Kallon Liberia
3/16/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 22D. Tweh Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Global Pharma48%
×Draw22%
Kallon Liberia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Global Pharma
1.89
Kallon Liberia
1.42

Global Pharma creates 33% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Global Pharma
1.54
Kallon Liberia
1.38

allows per match

Global Pharma
1.46
Kallon Liberia
2.23

finishing

Global Pharma+0.00on par
Kallon Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Global Pharma ↓

Kallon Liberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Global Pharma or draw
71%
Global Pharma or Kallon Liberia
78%
Draw or Kallon Liberia
52%

Winning margin

Global Pharma wins by 2+
27%
Kallon Liberia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Global Pharma 1+ goals
85%
Global Pharma 2+ goals
56%
Global Pharma 3+ goals
29%
Kallon Liberia 1+ goals
76%
Kallon Liberia 2+ goals
41%
Kallon Liberia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Global Pharma (draw refunded)
63%
Kallon Liberia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Global Pharma at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Kallon Liberia away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Global Pharma attack 1.54 + Kallon Liberia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kallon Liberia attack 1.38 + Global Pharma defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Global Pharma scores more
48%
level
22%
Kallon Liberia scores more
29%

Global Pharma at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Global Pharma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Global Pharma 1–0 Kallon Liberia

Global Pharma beat Kallon Liberia 1-0 in LFA First Division on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at D. Tweh Field in Monrovia.