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Global Pharma vs Fassell — LFA First Division 2020

Global Pharma
Global Pharma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fassell
Fassell
11/20/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 9D. Tweh Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Global Pharma25%
×Draw24%
Fassell50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Global Pharma
1.11
Fassell
1.67

Fassell creates 50% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

creates per match

Global Pharma
1.54
Fassell
1.89

allows per match

Global Pharma
1.46
Fassell
0.68

finishing

Global Pharma+0.00on par
Fassell+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Global Pharma ↓

Fassell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Global Pharma or draw
50%
Global Pharma or Fassell
76%
Draw or Fassell
75%

Winning margin

Global Pharma wins by 2+
10%
Fassell wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Global Pharma 1+ goals
67%
Global Pharma 2+ goals
30%
Global Pharma 3+ goals
10%
Fassell 1+ goals
81%
Fassell 2+ goals
50%
Fassell 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Global Pharma (draw refunded)
33%
Fassell (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Global Pharma at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Fassell away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Global Pharma attack 1.54 + Fassell defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.11

Fassell attack 1.89 + Global Pharma defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Global Pharma scores more
25%
level
24%
Fassell scores more
50%

Fassell at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fassell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Global Pharma vs Fassell

Global Pharma and Fassell drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on November 20, 2024.

The match was played at D. Tweh Field in Monrovia.