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Global Pharma vs Discoveries — LFA First Division 2020

Global Pharma
Global Pharma
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Discoveries
Discoveries
3/8/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 21D. Tweh Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Global Pharma34%
×Draw25%
Discoveries41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Global Pharma
1.38
Discoveries
1.54

Discoveries creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

creates per match

Global Pharma
1.54
Discoveries
1.63

allows per match

Global Pharma
1.46
Discoveries
1.22

finishing

Global Pharma+0.00on par
Discoveries+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Global Pharma ↓

Discoveries →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Global Pharma or draw
59%
Global Pharma or Discoveries
75%
Draw or Discoveries
66%

Winning margin

Global Pharma wins by 2+
15%
Discoveries wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Global Pharma 1+ goals
75%
Global Pharma 2+ goals
40%
Global Pharma 3+ goals
16%
Discoveries 1+ goals
79%
Discoveries 2+ goals
45%
Discoveries 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Global Pharma (draw refunded)
45%
Discoveries (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Global Pharma at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Discoveries away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Global Pharma attack 1.54 + Discoveries defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

Discoveries attack 1.63 + Global Pharma defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Global Pharma scores more
34%
level
25%
Discoveries scores more
41%

Discoveries at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Discoveries will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Global Pharma vs Discoveries

Global Pharma beat Discoveries 2-1 in LFA First Division on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at D. Tweh Field in Monrovia.