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Global Pharma vs Black Man Warrior — LFA First Division 2020

Global Pharma
Global Pharma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Black Man Warrior
Black Man Warrior
11/3/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 7D. Tweh Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Global Pharma42%
×Draw26%
Black Man Warrior31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Global Pharma
1.40
Black Man Warrior
1.16

Global Pharma creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

creates per match

Global Pharma
1.54
Black Man Warrior
0.85

allows per match

Global Pharma
1.46
Black Man Warrior
1.26

finishing

Global Pharma+0.00on par
Black Man Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Global Pharma ↓

Black Man Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Global Pharma or draw
69%
Global Pharma or Black Man Warrior
74%
Draw or Black Man Warrior
58%

Winning margin

Global Pharma wins by 2+
20%
Black Man Warrior wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Global Pharma 1+ goals
75%
Global Pharma 2+ goals
41%
Global Pharma 3+ goals
17%
Black Man Warrior 1+ goals
69%
Black Man Warrior 2+ goals
32%
Black Man Warrior 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Global Pharma (draw refunded)
58%
Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Global Pharma at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Black Man Warrior away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Global Pharma attack 1.54 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.40

Black Man Warrior attack 0.85 + Global Pharma defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Global Pharma scores more
42%
level
26%
Black Man Warrior scores more
31%

Global Pharma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Global Pharma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Global Pharma vs Black Man Warrior

Global Pharma beat Black Man Warrior 1-0 in LFA First Division on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at D. Tweh Field in Monrovia.