Glentoran 1–1 The New Saints: Result & Stats

Glentoran

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

The New Saints

J. Jenkins 34'

B. Wilson 9'

6/24/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Glentoran41%

×Draw25%

The New Saints33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GlentoranExpected goals in this matchThe New Saints

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.29

Glentoran

1.46

The New Saints

1.29

Glentoran creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

1.25

1.33

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Glentoran

1.67

The New Saints

1.25

allows per match

Glentoran

1.33

The New Saints

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Glentoran+0.00on par

The New Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glentoran ↓

The New Saints →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Glentoran or draw

67%

Glentoran or The New Saints

75%

Draw or The New Saints

59%

Winning margin

Glentoran wins by 2+

20%

The New Saints wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Glentoran 1+ goals

77%

Glentoran 2+ goals

43%

Glentoran 3+ goals

18%

The New Saints 1+ goals

72%

The New Saints 2+ goals

37%

The New Saints 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Glentoran (draw refunded)

55%

The New Saints (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glentoran at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

The New Saints away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glentoran attack 1.67 + The New Saints defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

The New Saints attack 1.25 + Glentoran defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Glentoran scores more

41%

level

25%

The New Saints scores more

33%

Glentoran at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Glentoran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

B. Wilson

34'

J. Jenkins

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff