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Glentoran vs Bangor — League #408 2026

Glentoran
Glentoran
Preview
14:00
Bangor
Bangor
9/12/2026League #408League #408 · Round 6The BetMcLean Oval
Big match
60%
Glentoran
model favours
60%21%18%

Glentoran score first in only 22% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Glentoran60%
×Draw21%
Bangor18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glentoran
2.00
Bangor
1.00

Glentoran creates 100% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

creates per match

Glentoran
2.07
Bangor
1.07

allows per match

Glentoran
0.93
Bangor
1.93

finishing

Glentoran+0.00on par
Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glentoran ↓

Bangor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Glentoran or draw
82%
Glentoran or Bangor
79%
Draw or Bangor
40%

Winning margin

Glentoran wins by 2+
36%
Bangor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Glentoran 1+ goals
86%
Glentoran 2+ goals
59%
Glentoran 3+ goals
32%
Bangor 1+ goals
63%
Bangor 2+ goals
26%
Bangor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Glentoran (draw refunded)
77%
Bangor (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glentoran at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Bangor away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glentoran attack 2.07 + Bangor defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Bangor attack 1.07 + Glentoran defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Glentoran scores more
60%
level
21%
Bangor scores more
18%

Glentoran at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Glentoran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bangor have won 3 in a row
  • Bangor score first in only 29% of matches
  • 71% of Bangor’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Glentoran
LLDLW
Bangor
WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Glentoran face Bangor (League #408)

League #408 returns with Glentoran hosting Bangor. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Glentoran host Bangor at The BetMcLean Oval.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.