Glentoran 4–1 Bangor: Result & Stats

Glentoran

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bangor

K. McLaughlin 79'

L. McCullough 57'

J. Ogedi-Uzokwe 50', 4'

B. Arthurs 33'

7/8/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3BetMcLean Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Glentoran44%

×Draw22%

Bangor34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GlentoranExpected goals in this matchBangor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.67

Glentoran

1.94

Bangor

1.67

Glentoran creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

2.00

1.33

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Glentoran

1.67

Bangor

2.00

allows per match

Glentoran

1.33

Bangor

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Glentoran+0.00on par

Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glentoran ↓

Bangor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Glentoran or draw

66%

Glentoran or Bangor

78%

Draw or Bangor

56%

Winning margin

Glentoran wins by 2+

25%

Bangor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Glentoran 1+ goals

86%

Glentoran 2+ goals

58%

Glentoran 3+ goals

30%

Bangor 1+ goals

81%

Bangor 2+ goals

50%

Bangor 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Glentoran (draw refunded)

57%

Bangor (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glentoran at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Bangor away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glentoran attack 1.67 + Bangor defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Bangor attack 2.00 + Glentoran defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Glentoran scores more

44%

level

22%

Bangor scores more

34%

Glentoran at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Glentoran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

J. Ogedi-Uzokwe

33'

B. Arthurs

50'

J. Ogedi-Uzokwe

57'

L. McCullough

79'

K. McLaughlin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff