Glentoran BU W 2–3 Shamrock Rovers W

Glentoran BU W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Shamrock Rovers W

D. Vance 87' (pen)

K. A. Beattie 49'

S. Coady 70', 14'

Unknown 32'

7/2/2023

All-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 3Tillysburn Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Glentoran BU W26%

×Draw20%

Shamrock Rovers W55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Glentoran BU WExpected goals in this matchShamrock Rovers W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

2.35

Glentoran BU W

1.57

Shamrock Rovers W

2.35

Shamrock Rovers W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.14

creates per match

2.00

2.71

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Glentoran BU W

1.14

Shamrock Rovers W

2.00

allows per match

Glentoran BU W

2.71

Shamrock Rovers W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Glentoran BU W+0.00on par

Shamrock Rovers W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glentoran BU W ↓

Shamrock Rovers W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Glentoran BU W or draw

45%

Glentoran BU W or Shamrock Rovers W

80%

Draw or Shamrock Rovers W

74%

Winning margin

Glentoran BU W wins by 2+

12%

Shamrock Rovers W wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Glentoran BU W 1+ goals

79%

Glentoran BU W 2+ goals

46%

Glentoran BU W 3+ goals

21%

Shamrock Rovers W 1+ goals

90%

Shamrock Rovers W 2+ goals

68%

Shamrock Rovers W 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)

32%

Shamrock Rovers W (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glentoran BU W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Shamrock Rovers W away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glentoran BU W attack 1.14 + Shamrock Rovers W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Shamrock Rovers W attack 2.00 + Glentoran BU W defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Glentoran BU W scores more

26%

level

20%

Shamrock Rovers W scores more

55%

Shamrock Rovers W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

S. Coady

32'

49'

K. A. Beattie

70'

S. Coady

87'

D. VancePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff