Glentoran BU W 3–0 Lisburn Rangers W

Glentoran BU W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lisburn Rangers W

9/22/2024

Premiership Women · Round 15Blanchflower Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Glentoran BU W75%

×Draw13%

Lisburn Rangers W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Glentoran BU WExpected goals in this matchLisburn Rangers W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.27

1.24

Glentoran BU W

3.27

Lisburn Rangers W

1.24

Glentoran BU W creates 164% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

4.71

creates per match

2.00

0.48

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Glentoran BU W

4.71

Lisburn Rangers W

2.00

allows per match

Glentoran BU W

0.48

Lisburn Rangers W

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Glentoran BU W+0.00on par

Lisburn Rangers W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glentoran BU W ↓

Lisburn Rangers W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Glentoran BU W or draw

89%

Glentoran BU W or Lisburn Rangers W

87%

Draw or Lisburn Rangers W

25%

Winning margin

Glentoran BU W wins by 2+

57%

Lisburn Rangers W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Glentoran BU W 1+ goals

96%

Glentoran BU W 2+ goals

83%

Glentoran BU W 3+ goals

62%

Lisburn Rangers W 1+ goals

71%

Lisburn Rangers W 2+ goals

35%

Lisburn Rangers W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)

87%

Lisburn Rangers W (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glentoran BU W at home — creates 4.71, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Lisburn Rangers W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glentoran BU W attack 4.71 + Lisburn Rangers W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 3.27

Lisburn Rangers W attack 2.00 + Glentoran BU W defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Glentoran BU W scores more

75%

level

13%

Lisburn Rangers W scores more

11%

Glentoran BU W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Glentoran BU W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff