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Glentoran BU W vs Linfield W — Premiership Women 2026

Glentoran BU W
Glentoran BU W
Preview
18:45
Linfield W
Linfield W
7/24/2026Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Group Stage
Big match
41%
Linfield W
model favours
39%19%41%

Both sides lean high-scoring (83% and 84% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

2–2
likely score
86%
over 2.5 goals
83%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Glentoran BU W39%
×Draw19%
Linfield W41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glentoran BU W
2.38
Linfield W
2.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Glentoran BU W
3.75
Linfield W
4.43

allows per match

Glentoran BU W
0.44
Linfield W
1.00

finishing

Glentoran BU W+0.00on par
Linfield W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glentoran BU W ↓

Linfield W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Glentoran BU W or draw
59%
Glentoran BU W or Linfield W
81%
Draw or Linfield W
61%

Winning margin

Glentoran BU W wins by 2+
23%
Linfield W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Glentoran BU W 1+ goals
91%
Glentoran BU W 2+ goals
68%
Glentoran BU W 3+ goals
42%
Linfield W 1+ goals
91%
Linfield W 2+ goals
70%
Linfield W 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)
49%
Linfield W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glentoran BU W at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

Linfield W away — creates 4.43, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glentoran BU W attack 3.75 + Linfield W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Linfield W attack 4.43 + Glentoran BU W defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Glentoran BU W scores more
39%
level
19%
Linfield W scores more
41%

Linfield W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Linfield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Linfield W score first in only 16% of matches
  • 84% of Linfield W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 83% of Glentoran BU W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Linfield W have scored in 10 games running
  • Glentoran BU W win 82% of their home games
  • Glentoran BU W score first in only 33% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DWWLW
W
DWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Glentoran BU W vs Linfield W — Match Preview

Glentoran BU W face Linfield W on July 24, 2026 in this Premiership Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.