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Glentoran BU W vs Bohemians WFC W — All-Island Cup - Women 2024

Glentoran BU W
Glentoran BU W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Bohemians WFC W
Bohemians WFC Wadvanced
K. Weir 16'
L. Murphy 56', 6'
H. O'Brien 13'
7/5/2025All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Quarter-Finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Glentoran BU W25%
×Draw22%
Bohemians WFC W54%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glentoran BU W
1.29
Bohemians WFC W
2.00

Bohemians WFC W creates 55% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Glentoran BU W
1.00
Bohemians WFC W
1.00

allows per match

Glentoran BU W
3.00
Bohemians WFC W
1.57

finishing

Glentoran BU W+0.00on par
Bohemians WFC W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glentoran BU W ↓

Bohemians WFC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Glentoran BU W or draw
46%
Glentoran BU W or Bohemians WFC W
78%
Draw or Bohemians WFC W
75%

Winning margin

Glentoran BU W wins by 2+
10%
Bohemians WFC W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Glentoran BU W 1+ goals
72%
Glentoran BU W 2+ goals
37%
Glentoran BU W 3+ goals
14%
Bohemians WFC W 1+ goals
86%
Bohemians WFC W 2+ goals
59%
Bohemians WFC W 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)
31%
Bohemians WFC W (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glentoran BU W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Bohemians WFC W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glentoran BU W attack 1.00 + Bohemians WFC W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bohemians WFC W attack 1.00 + Glentoran BU W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Glentoran BU W scores more
25%
level
22%
Bohemians WFC W scores more
54%

Bohemians WFC W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bohemians WFC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
L. Murphy
13'
H. O'Brien
16'
K. Weir
56'
L. Murphy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

All-Island Cup - Women: Glentoran BU W 1–3 Bohemians WFC W

Bohemians WFC W beat Glentoran BU W 3-1 in All-Island Cup - Women on July 5, 2025.

Goals: L. Murphy (6', 56'), H. O'Brien (13'), K. Weir (16').