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Glenorchy Knights U21 vs South East Utd. U21 — Tasmania Southern Championship 2026

Glenorchy Knights U21
Glenorchy Knights U21
FT
19 – 2
HT: 10 – 0
South East Utd. U21
South East Utd. U21
3/21/2026Tasmania Southern ChampionshipTasmania Southern Championship · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Glenorchy Knights U2117%
×Draw14%
South East Utd. U2169%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glenorchy Knights U21
2.26
South East Utd. U21
4.38

South East Utd. U21 creates 94% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Glenorchy Knights U21
2.05
South East Utd. U21
4.29

allows per match

Glenorchy Knights U21
4.47
South East Utd. U21
2.48

finishing

Glenorchy Knights U21+0.00on par
South East Utd. U21+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glenorchy Knights U21 ↓

South East Utd. U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–23%
1–35%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–34%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
88%12%4.5
75%25%

Double chance

Glenorchy Knights U21 or draw
31%
Glenorchy Knights U21 or South East Utd. U21
86%
Draw or South East Utd. U21
83%

Winning margin

Glenorchy Knights U21 wins by 2+
8%
South East Utd. U21 wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Glenorchy Knights U21 1+ goals
89%
Glenorchy Knights U21 2+ goals
66%
Glenorchy Knights U21 3+ goals
39%
South East Utd. U21 1+ goals
99%
South East Utd. U21 2+ goals
92%
South East Utd. U21 3+ goals
78%

Draw no bet

Glenorchy Knights U21 (draw refunded)
20%
South East Utd. U21 (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glenorchy Knights U21 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 4.47 · 19 matches

South East Utd. U21 away — creates 4.29, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glenorchy Knights U21 attack 2.05 + South East Utd. U21 defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.26

South East Utd. U21 attack 4.29 + Glenorchy Knights U21 defence 4.47 → ÷2 → 4.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Glenorchy Knights U21 scores more
17%
level
14%
South East Utd. U21 scores more
69%

South East Utd. U21 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "South East Utd. U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania Southern Championship: Glenorchy Knights U21 19–2 South East Utd. U21

Glenorchy Knights U21 beat South East Utd. U21 19-2 in Tasmania Southern Championship on March 21, 2026.