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Glenavon FC vs Dungannon Swifts — League #408 2026

Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
12/30/2025League #408League #408

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Glenavon FC32%
×Draw25%
Dungannon Swifts44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glenavon FC
1.31
Dungannon Swifts
1.59

Dungannon Swifts creates 21% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 8 away

creates per match

Glenavon FC
1.25
Dungannon Swifts
1.50

allows per match

Glenavon FC
1.68
Dungannon Swifts
1.38

finishing

Glenavon FC+0.00on par
Dungannon Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glenavon FC ↓

Dungannon Swifts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Glenavon FC or draw
56%
Glenavon FC or Dungannon Swifts
75%
Draw or Dungannon Swifts
68%

Winning margin

Glenavon FC wins by 2+
14%
Dungannon Swifts wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Glenavon FC 1+ goals
73%
Glenavon FC 2+ goals
38%
Glenavon FC 3+ goals
14%
Dungannon Swifts 1+ goals
80%
Dungannon Swifts 2+ goals
47%
Dungannon Swifts 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Glenavon FC (draw refunded)
42%
Dungannon Swifts (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glenavon FC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 53 matches

Dungannon Swifts away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glenavon FC attack 1.25 + Dungannon Swifts defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dungannon Swifts attack 1.50 + Glenavon FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Glenavon FC scores more
32%
level
25%
Dungannon Swifts scores more
44%

Dungannon Swifts at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dungannon Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Glenavon FC vs Dungannon Swifts

Dungannon Swifts beat Glenavon FC 1-0 in League #408 on December 30, 2025.