Glenavon FC 0–5 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Glenavon FC

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Doncaster

T. Nixon 67'

H. Clifton 39'

L. Ayinde 31'

A. May 25'

O. Bailey 15'

7/16/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Glenavon FC22%

×Draw19%

Doncaster59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Glenavon FCExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.50

Glenavon FC

1.50

Doncaster

2.50

Doncaster creates 67% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

3.00

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Glenavon FC

2.00

Doncaster

3.00

allows per match

Glenavon FC

2.00

Doncaster

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Glenavon FC+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glenavon FC ↓

Doncaster →

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Glenavon FC or draw

41%

Glenavon FC or Doncaster

81%

Draw or Doncaster

78%

Winning margin

Glenavon FC wins by 2+

10%

Doncaster wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Glenavon FC 1+ goals

78%

Glenavon FC 2+ goals

44%

Glenavon FC 3+ goals

19%

Doncaster 1+ goals

92%

Doncaster 2+ goals

71%

Doncaster 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Glenavon FC (draw refunded)

27%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Glenavon FC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Doncaster away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Glenavon FC attack 2.00 + Doncaster defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Doncaster attack 3.00 + Glenavon FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Glenavon FC scores more

22%

level

19%

Doncaster scores more

59%

Doncaster at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

25'

31'

39'

67'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff