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Glenavon FC vs Dergview — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dergview
Dergview
7/30/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Mourneview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Glenavon FC62%
×Draw18%
Dergview19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glenavon FC
2.50
Dergview
1.33

Glenavon FC creates 88% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Glenavon FC
2.00
Dergview
0.67

allows per match

Glenavon FC
2.00
Dergview
3.00

finishing

Glenavon FC+0.00on par
Dergview+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glenavon FC ↓

Dergview →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Glenavon FC or draw
81%
Glenavon FC or Dergview
82%
Draw or Dergview
38%

Winning margin

Glenavon FC wins by 2+
41%
Dergview wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Glenavon FC 1+ goals
92%
Glenavon FC 2+ goals
71%
Glenavon FC 3+ goals
45%
Dergview 1+ goals
74%
Dergview 2+ goals
38%
Dergview 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Glenavon FC (draw refunded)
77%
Dergview (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glenavon FC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Dergview away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glenavon FC attack 2.00 + Dergview defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Dergview attack 0.67 + Glenavon FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Glenavon FC scores more
62%
level
18%
Dergview scores more
19%

Glenavon FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Glenavon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Glenavon FC 3–1 Dergview

Glenavon FC beat Dergview 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Mourneview Park in Lurgan.