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Glenafton Athletic vs Threave Rovers — FA Cup 2019

Glenafton Athletic
Glenafton Athletic
FT
2 – 4
Threave Rovers
Threave Rovers
8/31/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundLoch Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Glenafton Athletic37%
×Draw20%
Threave Rovers42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glenafton Athletic
2.05
Threave Rovers
2.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Glenafton Athletic
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.11

allows per match

Glenafton Athletic
2.25
Threave Rovers
2.11

finishing

Glenafton Athletic+0.00on par
Threave Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glenafton Athletic ↓

Threave Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Glenafton Athletic or draw
58%
Glenafton Athletic or Threave Rovers
80%
Draw or Threave Rovers
63%

Winning margin

Glenafton Athletic wins by 2+
20%
Threave Rovers wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Glenafton Athletic 1+ goals
87%
Glenafton Athletic 2+ goals
61%
Glenafton Athletic 3+ goals
33%
Threave Rovers 1+ goals
89%
Threave Rovers 2+ goals
64%
Threave Rovers 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Glenafton Athletic (draw refunded)
47%
Threave Rovers (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glenafton Athletic at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Threave Rovers away — creates 2.11, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glenafton Athletic attack 2.00 + Threave Rovers defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

Threave Rovers attack 2.11 + Glenafton Athletic defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Glenafton Athletic scores more
37%
level
20%
Threave Rovers scores more
42%

Threave Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Threave Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Glenafton Athletic 2–4 Threave Rovers

Threave Rovers beat Glenafton Athletic 4-2 in FA Cup on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Loch Park in Cumnock.