Glenafton Athletic 3–0 Dalkeith Thistle

Glenafton Athletic

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Dalkeith Thistle

8/30/2025

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundLoch Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Glenafton Athletic49%

×Draw20%

Dalkeith Thistle31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Glenafton AthleticExpected goals in this matchDalkeith Thistle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.88

Glenafton Athletic

2.38

Dalkeith Thistle

1.88

Glenafton Athletic creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.50

2.25

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Glenafton Athletic

2.00

Dalkeith Thistle

1.50

allows per match

Glenafton Athletic

2.25

Dalkeith Thistle

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Glenafton Athletic+0.00on par

Dalkeith Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glenafton Athletic ↓

Dalkeith Thistle →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Glenafton Athletic or draw

69%

Glenafton Athletic or Dalkeith Thistle

80%

Draw or Dalkeith Thistle

51%

Winning margin

Glenafton Athletic wins by 2+

30%

Dalkeith Thistle wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Glenafton Athletic 1+ goals

91%

Glenafton Athletic 2+ goals

68%

Glenafton Athletic 3+ goals

42%

Dalkeith Thistle 1+ goals

85%

Dalkeith Thistle 2+ goals

56%

Dalkeith Thistle 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Glenafton Athletic (draw refunded)

61%

Dalkeith Thistle (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Glenafton Athletic at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Dalkeith Thistle away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Glenafton Athletic attack 2.00 + Dalkeith Thistle defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Dalkeith Thistle attack 1.50 + Glenafton Athletic defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Glenafton Athletic scores more

49%

level

20%

Dalkeith Thistle scores more

31%

Glenafton Athletic at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Glenafton Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff