Gleisdorf 09 2–1 Lebring: Result & Stats

Gleisdorf 09

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lebring

1/24/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gleisdorf 0950%

×Draw20%

Lebring30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gleisdorf 09Expected goals in this matchLebring

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.78

Gleisdorf 09

2.30

Lebring

1.78

Gleisdorf 09 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

2.36

creates per match

1.63

1.93

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Gleisdorf 09

2.36

Lebring

1.63

allows per match

Gleisdorf 09

1.93

Lebring

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par

Lebring+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gleisdorf 09 ↓

Lebring →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Gleisdorf 09 or draw

70%

Gleisdorf 09 or Lebring

80%

Draw or Lebring

50%

Winning margin

Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+

30%

Lebring wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals

90%

Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals

67%

Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals

40%

Lebring 1+ goals

83%

Lebring 2+ goals

53%

Lebring 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)

62%

Lebring (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gleisdorf 09 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

Lebring away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gleisdorf 09 attack 2.36 + Lebring defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.30

Lebring attack 1.63 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gleisdorf 09 scores more

50%

level

20%

Lebring scores more

30%

Gleisdorf 09 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gleisdorf 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff