Gleisdorf 09 1–2 Hertha: Result & Stats

Gleisdorf 09

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hertha

10/28/2022

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 15Solarstadion der Stadt Gleisdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Gleisdorf 0937%

×Draw23%

Hertha40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gleisdorf 09Expected goals in this matchHertha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.75

Gleisdorf 09

1.67

Hertha

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 61 away

1.69

creates per match

1.77

1.73

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Gleisdorf 09

1.69

Hertha

1.77

allows per match

Gleisdorf 09

1.73

Hertha

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par

Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gleisdorf 09 ↓

Hertha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Gleisdorf 09 or draw

60%

Gleisdorf 09 or Hertha

77%

Draw or Hertha

63%

Winning margin

Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+

19%

Hertha wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals

81%

Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals

50%

Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals

23%

Hertha 1+ goals

83%

Hertha 2+ goals

52%

Hertha 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)

48%

Hertha (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gleisdorf 09 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

Hertha away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.64 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gleisdorf 09 attack 1.69 + Hertha defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hertha attack 1.77 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gleisdorf 09 scores more

37%

level

23%

Hertha scores more

40%

Hertha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff