Gleisdorf 09 4–0 Frauental: Result & Stats

Gleisdorf 09

4 – 0

Frauental

7/14/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gleisdorf 0963%

×Draw18%

Frauental20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gleisdorf 09Expected goals in this matchFrauental

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

1.46

Gleisdorf 09

2.68

Frauental

1.46

Gleisdorf 09 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

2.36

creates per match

1.00

1.93

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Gleisdorf 09

2.36

Frauental

1.00

allows per match

Gleisdorf 09

1.93

Frauental

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par

Frauental+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gleisdorf 09 ↓

Frauental →

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Gleisdorf 09 or draw

80%

Gleisdorf 09 or Frauental

82%

Draw or Frauental

37%

Winning margin

Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+

42%

Frauental wins by 2+

Team goals

Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals

93%

Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals

74%

Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals

49%

Frauental 1+ goals

77%

Frauental 2+ goals

43%

Frauental 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)

76%

Frauental (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gleisdorf 09 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

Frauental away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gleisdorf 09 attack 2.36 + Frauental defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.68

Frauental attack 1.00 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Gleisdorf 09 scores more

63%

level

18%

Frauental scores more

20%

Gleisdorf 09 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Gleisdorf 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff