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Gleisdorf 09 vs ASK Klagenfurt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gleisdorf 09
Gleisdorf 09
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
9/1/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 6Solarstadion der Stadt Gleisdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Gleisdorf 0940%
×Draw23%
ASK Klagenfurt37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gleisdorf 09
1.71
ASK Klagenfurt
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 25 away

creates per match

Gleisdorf 09
1.69
ASK Klagenfurt
1.52

allows per match

Gleisdorf 09
1.73
ASK Klagenfurt
1.72

finishing

Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par
ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gleisdorf 09 ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gleisdorf 09 or draw
63%
Gleisdorf 09 or ASK Klagenfurt
77%
Draw or ASK Klagenfurt
60%

Winning margin

Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+
21%
ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals
82%
Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals
51%
Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals
24%
ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
80%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
48%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)
52%
ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gleisdorf 09 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gleisdorf 09 attack 1.69 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.52 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gleisdorf 09 scores more
40%
level
23%
ASK Klagenfurt scores more
37%

Gleisdorf 09 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gleisdorf 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Gleisdorf 09 3–0 ASK Klagenfurt

Gleisdorf 09 beat ASK Klagenfurt 3-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Solarstadion der Stadt Gleisdorf in Gleisdorf.