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Glasgow University vs Golspie Sutherland — FA Cup 2019

Glasgow University
Glasgow University
FT
2 – 0
Golspie Sutherland
Golspie Sutherland
8/27/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundExcelsior Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Glasgow University52%
×Draw25%
Golspie Sutherland23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glasgow University
1.63
Golspie Sutherland
1.00

Glasgow University creates 63% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Glasgow University
2.00
Golspie Sutherland
1.00

allows per match

Glasgow University
1.00
Golspie Sutherland
1.25

finishing

Glasgow University+0.00on par
Golspie Sutherland+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glasgow University ↓

Golspie Sutherland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Glasgow University or draw
77%
Glasgow University or Golspie Sutherland
75%
Draw or Golspie Sutherland
48%

Winning margin

Glasgow University wins by 2+
28%
Golspie Sutherland wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Glasgow University 1+ goals
80%
Glasgow University 2+ goals
48%
Glasgow University 3+ goals
22%
Golspie Sutherland 1+ goals
63%
Golspie Sutherland 2+ goals
26%
Golspie Sutherland 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Glasgow University (draw refunded)
69%
Golspie Sutherland (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glasgow University at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Golspie Sutherland away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glasgow University attack 2.00 + Golspie Sutherland defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Golspie Sutherland attack 1.00 + Glasgow University defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Glasgow University scores more
52%
level
25%
Golspie Sutherland scores more
23%

Glasgow University at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Glasgow University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Glasgow University vs Golspie Sutherland

Glasgow University beat Golspie Sutherland 2-0 in FA Cup on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Excelsior Stadium in Airdrie.