Glasgow University 1–1 Albion Rovers

Glasgow University

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Albion Rovers

10/22/2022

FA Cup · 2nd RoundExcelsior Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Glasgow University38%

×Draw24%

Albion Rovers38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Glasgow UniversityExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

Glasgow University

1.50

Albion Rovers

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Glasgow University

2.00

Albion Rovers

2.00

allows per match

Glasgow University

1.00

Albion Rovers

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Glasgow University+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glasgow University ↓

Albion Rovers →

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Glasgow University or draw

62%

Glasgow University or Albion Rovers

76%

Draw or Albion Rovers

62%

Winning margin

Glasgow University wins by 2+

18%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Glasgow University 1+ goals

78%

Glasgow University 2+ goals

44%

Glasgow University 3+ goals

19%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

78%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

44%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Glasgow University (draw refunded)

50%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Glasgow University at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Glasgow University attack 2.00 + Albion Rovers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Albion Rovers attack 2.00 + Glasgow University defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Glasgow University scores more

38%

level

24%

Albion Rovers scores more

38%

Glasgow University at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Glasgow University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff