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Glasgow City W vs VfL Wolfsburg W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Glasgow City W
Glasgow City W
FT
1 – 9
HT: 0 – 4
VfL Wolfsburg W
VfL Wolfsburg Wadvanced
8/21/2020UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Quarter-finalsReale Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Glasgow City W20%
×Draw19%
VfL Wolfsburg W61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glasgow City W
1.39
VfL Wolfsburg W
2.50

VfL Wolfsburg W creates 80% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 26 away

creates per match

Glasgow City W
1.36
VfL Wolfsburg W
2.81

allows per match

Glasgow City W
2.18
VfL Wolfsburg W
1.42

finishing

Glasgow City W+0.00on par
VfL Wolfsburg W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glasgow City W ↓

VfL Wolfsburg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Glasgow City W or draw
39%
Glasgow City W or VfL Wolfsburg W
81%
Draw or VfL Wolfsburg W
80%

Winning margin

Glasgow City W wins by 2+
8%
VfL Wolfsburg W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Glasgow City W 1+ goals
75%
Glasgow City W 2+ goals
40%
Glasgow City W 3+ goals
16%
VfL Wolfsburg W 1+ goals
92%
VfL Wolfsburg W 2+ goals
71%
VfL Wolfsburg W 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Glasgow City W (draw refunded)
25%
VfL Wolfsburg W (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glasgow City W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

VfL Wolfsburg W away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glasgow City W attack 1.36 + VfL Wolfsburg W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

VfL Wolfsburg W attack 2.81 + Glasgow City W defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Glasgow City W scores more
20%
level
19%
VfL Wolfsburg W scores more
61%

VfL Wolfsburg W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Glasgow City W 1–9 VfL Wolfsburg W

VfL Wolfsburg W beat Glasgow City W 9-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 21, 2020.

The match was played at Reale Arena in Donostia-San Sebastián.