Glasgow City W 1–2 Servette Chênois W

Glasgow City W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Servette Chênois W

9/8/2021

UEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundBroadwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Glasgow City W58%

×Draw20%

Servette Chênois W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Glasgow City WExpected goals in this matchServette Chênois W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.31

Glasgow City W

2.25

Servette Chênois W

1.31

Glasgow City W creates 72% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.36

creates per match

0.43

2.18

allows per match

3.14

creates per match

Glasgow City W

1.36

Servette Chênois W

0.43

allows per match

Glasgow City W

2.18

Servette Chênois W

3.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Glasgow City W+0.00on par

Servette Chênois W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glasgow City W ↓

Servette Chênois W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Glasgow City W or draw

78%

Glasgow City W or Servette Chênois W

80%

Draw or Servette Chênois W

42%

Winning margin

Glasgow City W wins by 2+

36%

Servette Chênois W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Glasgow City W 1+ goals

89%

Glasgow City W 2+ goals

65%

Glasgow City W 3+ goals

39%

Servette Chênois W 1+ goals

73%

Servette Chênois W 2+ goals

38%

Servette Chênois W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Glasgow City W (draw refunded)

73%

Servette Chênois W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glasgow City W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

Servette Chênois W away — creates 0.43, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glasgow City W attack 1.36 + Servette Chênois W defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.25

Servette Chênois W attack 0.43 + Glasgow City W defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Glasgow City W scores more

58%

level

20%

Servette Chênois W scores more

22%

Glasgow City W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Glasgow City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff