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Glasgow City W vs Birkirkara W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Glasgow City W
Glasgow City Wadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Birkirkara W
Birkirkara W
8/18/2021UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsBroadwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Glasgow City W51%
×Draw23%
Birkirkara W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glasgow City W
1.87
Birkirkara W
1.28

Glasgow City W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Glasgow City W
1.36
Birkirkara W
0.38

allows per match

Glasgow City W
2.18
Birkirkara W
2.38

finishing

Glasgow City W+0.00on par
Birkirkara W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glasgow City W ↓

Birkirkara W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Glasgow City W or draw
74%
Glasgow City W or Birkirkara W
77%
Draw or Birkirkara W
49%

Winning margin

Glasgow City W wins by 2+
29%
Birkirkara W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Glasgow City W 1+ goals
85%
Glasgow City W 2+ goals
56%
Glasgow City W 3+ goals
29%
Birkirkara W 1+ goals
72%
Birkirkara W 2+ goals
37%
Birkirkara W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Glasgow City W (draw refunded)
66%
Birkirkara W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glasgow City W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

Birkirkara W away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glasgow City W attack 1.36 + Birkirkara W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.87

Birkirkara W attack 0.38 + Glasgow City W defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Glasgow City W scores more
51%
level
23%
Birkirkara W scores more
26%

Glasgow City W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Glasgow City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Glasgow City W 3–0 Birkirkara W

Glasgow City W beat Birkirkara W 3-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Broadwood Stadium in Cumbernauld.