Gladiator 0–1 Team Nuova Florida: Result & Stats

Gladiator

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Team Nuova Florida

1/19/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 13Stadio Mario Piccirillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gladiator36%

×Draw27%

Team Nuova Florida37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GladiatorExpected goals in this matchTeam Nuova Florida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.25

Gladiator

1.22

Team Nuova Florida

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

1.03

creates per match

1.24

1.26

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Gladiator

1.03

Team Nuova Florida

1.24

allows per match

Gladiator

1.26

Team Nuova Florida

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gladiator+0.00on par

Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gladiator ↓

Team Nuova Florida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gladiator or draw

63%

Gladiator or Team Nuova Florida

73%

Draw or Team Nuova Florida

64%

Winning margin

Gladiator wins by 2+

15%

Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Gladiator 1+ goals

70%

Gladiator 2+ goals

34%

Gladiator 3+ goals

12%

Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals

71%

Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals

36%

Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gladiator (draw refunded)

49%

Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gladiator at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Team Nuova Florida away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gladiator attack 1.03 + Team Nuova Florida defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.24 + Gladiator defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gladiator scores more

36%

level

27%

Team Nuova Florida scores more

37%

Team Nuova Florida at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Team Nuova Florida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff