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Gladiator vs Sarrabus Ogliastra — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Gladiator
Gladiator
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Sarrabus Ogliastra
10/1/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 4Stadio Mario Piccirillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Gladiator41%
×Draw26%
Sarrabus Ogliastra33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gladiator
1.37
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.21

Gladiator creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Gladiator
1.03
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.16

allows per match

Gladiator
1.26
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.71

finishing

Gladiator+0.00on par
Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gladiator ↓

Sarrabus Ogliastra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gladiator or draw
67%
Gladiator or Sarrabus Ogliastra
74%
Draw or Sarrabus Ogliastra
59%

Winning margin

Gladiator wins by 2+
19%
Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gladiator 1+ goals
75%
Gladiator 2+ goals
40%
Gladiator 3+ goals
16%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals
70%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals
34%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gladiator (draw refunded)
55%
Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gladiator at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gladiator attack 1.03 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.16 + Gladiator defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gladiator scores more
41%
level
26%
Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more
33%

Gladiator at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gladiator will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gladiator vs Sarrabus Ogliastra

Gladiator and Sarrabus Ogliastra drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Piccirillo in Santa Maria Capua Vetere.