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Gladiator vs San Marzano — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Gladiator
Gladiator
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Marzano
San Marzano
10/28/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 8Stadio Mario Piccirillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gladiator40%
×Draw29%
San Marzano31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gladiator
1.16
San Marzano
0.98

Gladiator creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gladiator
1.03
San Marzano
0.71

allows per match

Gladiator
1.26
San Marzano
1.29

finishing

Gladiator+0.00on par
San Marzano+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gladiator ↓

San Marzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gladiator or draw
69%
Gladiator or San Marzano
71%
Draw or San Marzano
60%

Winning margin

Gladiator wins by 2+
17%
San Marzano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gladiator 1+ goals
69%
Gladiator 2+ goals
32%
Gladiator 3+ goals
11%
San Marzano 1+ goals
62%
San Marzano 2+ goals
26%
San Marzano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gladiator (draw refunded)
56%
San Marzano (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gladiator at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

San Marzano away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gladiator attack 1.03 + San Marzano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

San Marzano attack 0.71 + Gladiator defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gladiator scores more
40%
level
29%
San Marzano scores more
31%

Gladiator at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gladiator will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Gladiator 1–1 San Marzano

Gladiator and San Marzano drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Piccirillo in Santa Maria Capua Vetere.