Gladiator 3–1 Lanusei: Result & Stats

Gladiator

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lanusei

3/26/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 25Stadio Comunale Vittorio Papa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Gladiator44%

×Draw28%

Lanusei28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GladiatorExpected goals in this matchLanusei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.96

Gladiator

1.29

Lanusei

0.96

Gladiator creates 34% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

1.03

creates per match

0.65

1.26

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Gladiator

1.03

Lanusei

0.65

allows per match

Gladiator

1.26

Lanusei

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gladiator+0.00on par

Lanusei+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gladiator ↓

Lanusei →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gladiator or draw

72%

Gladiator or Lanusei

72%

Draw or Lanusei

56%

Winning margin

Gladiator wins by 2+

20%

Lanusei wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gladiator 1+ goals

72%

Gladiator 2+ goals

37%

Gladiator 3+ goals

14%

Lanusei 1+ goals

62%

Lanusei 2+ goals

25%

Lanusei 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gladiator (draw refunded)

61%

Lanusei (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gladiator at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Lanusei away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gladiator attack 1.03 + Lanusei defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lanusei attack 0.65 + Gladiator defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gladiator scores more

44%

level

28%

Lanusei scores more

28%

Gladiator at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gladiator will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff